Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke is an excellent read for anyone who is interested in learning about the science behind decision-making and techniques to make better decisions. If you enjoy learning about human behavior and are open to approaching decisions differently then this one is for you!
Pairs With: Sanders Dark Chocolate Sea Salt Caramels
Overview
Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke is an excellent read for anyone who is interested in learning about the science behind decision-making and techniques to make better decisions. “Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions.” Duke provides a thoughtful explanation behind each new approach that will help you be a better decision-maker.
Decisions vs. Outcomes
I had two major “ah ha!” moments from this book and one of them was the distinction between decisions and outcomes. Duke explains that decisions are separate from outcomes. Often, we confuse the two and assume one equals the other. (I certainly have done this!)
For example, Duke says a decision can be made using all of the best evidence but the outcome could still be unfavorable. When we face an unfavorable outcome we often conclude that we made a “bad” decision. However, this is not always the case. Duke reminds us that, like poker, there is always a level of luck involved in the unknown. No matter how much we try to make the best call there is always a probability that the unexpected can happen. “For most people, it’s difficult to say “I’m not sure” in a world that values, and even rewards, the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don’t always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don’t always lead to bad outcomes.”
To balance this, Duke recommends that readers think in terms of bets by asking themselves how much they’d be willing to bet on their decision. This naturally leads the mind to assess the probabilities of each outcome. Instead of being focused on the good or bad of an outcome, Duke recommends we recognize in all instances there is always a degree of the unknown or luck that could come into play. If we want to be better decision-makers we have to recognize our odds with each choice.
Backcasting and Premortems
My second major “ah ha!” moment was when Duke described the power of Backcasting and Premortems. Backcasting is when we allow ourselves to imagine we hit our goal and then look for what decisions got us there. What choices did we make and what did we avoid?
Alternately, Premortem is imagining we missed our goal. This is not something we often do because it can be painful to picture ourselves failing. HOWEVER, this tactic can reveal a lot of information that will ultimately help us succeed even more. This time we ask ourselves things like, “What things caused me to miss the goal? What got in my way?” By looking at it from both points of view, Duke says we are able to make better decisions toward our goals.
Conclusion
I really enjoyed the various concepts, ideas, and advice throughout this book. Any reader can apply the concepts from this book because Duke does such a great job of explaining them! Overall this book is one I’d definitely recommend. Especially if you’re at all interested in decision science and are open to a new way of making decisions. Also, there are plenty of other “ah-ha!” moments throughout the book that I didn’t share!
(Unrelated but sort of related: I often read more than one book at a time and while I was reading Thinking in Bets, I was also reading Power Failure by William Cohan. In his book, Cohan dives into the life of Jack Welch while he was CEO of GE. Consequently, Suzy Welch is mentioned. Duke just so happened to also mention Suzy Welch in this one as well!)
P.S. If you enjoyed this one, I’d recommend Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely! Duke makes reference to this book through Thinking in Bets and it’s another great one to read!)
